It seems to me that we aren’t making much progress in securing Iraq. In fact, one could argue that we are losing ground. For quite some time now a lot of people have thought that Donald Rumsfeld bears most of the responsibility for our lack of success there. In the last few days talk of his incompetence and/or stubborness has reached a crescendo. I have no way of knowing which is the most stubborn about making some changes in Iraq, the President or Rumsfeld. It doesn’t really matter though, because I see fault in both: Bush for not firing Rumsfeld if he thinks Rumsfeld is not getting the job done, and Rumsfeld for not resigning in protest if Bush is constraining him too much. Based on what they both say publicly it would seem that they both fall short in achieving our objectives in Iraq.
With or without Rumsfeld, the most important question is: What should be done to turn things around in Iraq? Before I attempt to answer that question let me set the stage.
There are only three valid objectives in taking military action against a sovereign nation: to punish, to conquer or to conduct a short-term special operation. Punishment of a nation can range from isolated brief attacks to complete destruction, and does not involve occupation of the nation. Conquest of a nation consists of the defeat of the nation’s military, the overthrow of its governing regime, and the temporary or permanent occupation of the nation. Special operations can take many forms but usually are covert operations to capture or kill antagonists, to rescue hostages or to conduct surveillance.
The objective in both Afghanistan and Iraq was to conquer. The occupation of these countries is temporary, but with no specific date for withdrawal. I could argue that this was the wrong objective in both countries; that instead we should have chosen to punish them severely and then let the people of each country determine their own future. If they then choose wrongly and continue to be a threat, then punish them again. But that is water under the bridge. We chose to conquer and now we are bogged down.
We are bogged down because our leaders chose to occupy and let the people determine their own future. Or rather, they chose to kind of let the people determine their own future. Our leaders mistakenly believed that the people of those countries would welcome our assistance in determining their future. It has turned out that the few people chosen to lead the countries are somewhat cooperative, but the vast majority of the people are anything but.
What our leaders should have been prepared to do, after making the decision to conquer and occupy, was to lock down the borders and principal cities and rule with an iron hand. That, of course, would have required a lot more troops than what we had on the ground when the regimes fell. This shortage of troops is the key to what needs to be done to rescue our missions in the two countries.
The size of our active duty military forces needs to be dramatically increased. We need to double or triple our troop strengths in Afghanistan and Iraq. We may need troops to go into Pakistan to shut down the Taliban and al Qaeda in its Waziristan territory. We are threatened by Iran, Syria, North Korea and other nations.
When we have sufficient troops in Afghanistan and Iraq we need to secure the borders and sweep those countries to eliminate the armament of the insurgents and terrorists and capture as many of them as is possible. As each country is swept it should be locked down with troops and strict curfews. Then the people should be given time to build and train their police and miltary forces and to establish their government. When that is done we should withdraw and let them succeed or fail on their own.
And, if they again become a threat, we should punish severely this time, not try to conquer.