A few days ago I questioned the accuracy of the climate models being used as the basis for most of the alarm about global warming. Today I found a letter to the editor of the local paper that very closely echos my point of view. The writer appears to have a similar background to mine, but if our paths have ever crossed I don’t remember it. I’m taking the liberty of republishing his letter here because I couldn’t find a link to it at NWFDailyNews.com:
During the past 20 years, computer models have improved short-term weather forecasting in many ways. However, weather and climate models have also been misused by people who do not fully understand how computer models work.
As a developer and user of scientific computer models, I was always aware that my modeling results were limited in validity and accuracy by the detail, accuracy and validity of the modeling software and the input data I used. Realistically, I could have obtained almost any result I desired if I made appropriate assumptions in my modeling program design and/or my input data.
Examples of misuses of weather/climate computer models are the annual forecasts of numbers and severity of hurricanes, and the ongoing issue of global climate change.
Critical weather and climate factors such as the unpredictable dynamic physics of cloud formation, variations in atmospheric gases and variations of ocean currents are not well documented or understood. Such natural phenomena are important determinants of weather and climate. This should be recognized as a serious problem with these long-term forecast models.
Even when well-known statistical techniques are used to increase the level of confidence in any modeling, the end results are still impacted by the validity and accuracy of the programming science and assumptions, parametric data accuracy, and any data omissions.
How accruate are long-term climate forecasts when models such as those just described are used? Accurate enough to believe widely accepted disaster scenarios derived from some global-warming modeling forecasts? I don’t think so. Also, don’t bother with those annual hurricane forecasts for the same reasons.
JOE COBB
Valparaiso FL
Hey Carson. I get heaps of referrals from this site. I ave had too much red wine to comment on your current post as it has taken me about 5 minutes to type type this. I will be back to comment though.
Thanaks and cheers.
Fang, your comments are welcome anytime — even when you’ve had too much wine. I try to read all your posts. It’s good to know what Australians are doing and thinking. I spent a week each in Melbourne and Sydney about fifteen years ago. It was a business trip but I enjoyed it immensely.